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Mixture models for prediction from time series, with application to energy use data.

Qarmalah, Najla M. and Einbeck, Jochen and Coolen, Frank P.A. (2017) 'Mixture models for prediction from time series, with application to energy use data.', Archives of data science. Series A., 2 (1). pp. 1-15.


This paper aims to use mixture models to produce predictions from time series data. Given data of the form (ti, yi), i = 1, . . . , T , we propose a mix- ture model localized at time point tT with the k-th component as yi = mk (ti) + εik with mixing proportions πk (ti) such that 0 ≤ πk (ti) ≤ 1 and ∑K πk (ti) = 1, where K is the number of components. The k (·) are smooth unspecified regression functions, and the errors εik ∼ N(0, σ 2) are independently distributed. Estimation of this model is achieved through a kernel-weighted version of the EM-algorithm, using exponential kernels with different bandwidths (neighbour- hood sizes) hk as weight functions. By modelling a mixture of local regressions at a target time point tT but with different bandwidths hk , the estimated mixture probabilities are informative for the amount of information available in the data set at the scale of resolution corresponding to each bandwidth. Nadaraya- Watson and local linear estimators are used to carry out the localized estimation step. For prediction at time point tT +1, adequate methods are provided for each local method, and compared to competing forecasting routines. The data under study give the energy use for Bolivia, Lebanon, and Greece from 1971 to 2011.

Item Type:Article
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Publisher statement:CC BY-SA 4.0: Creative Commons Namensnennung – Weitergabe unter gleichen Bedingungen 4.0 International
Date accepted:20 February 2017
Date deposited:29 March 2017
Date of first online publication:06 March 2017
Date first made open access:No date available

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