We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. By continuing to browse this repository, you give consent for essential cookies to be used. You can read more about our Privacy and Cookie Policy.

Durham Research Online
You are in:

Natural disasters and political engagement : evidence from the 2010–11 Pakistani floods.

Fair, C. Christine and Kuhn, Patrick M. and Malhotra, Neil and Shapiro, Jacob N. (2017) 'Natural disasters and political engagement : evidence from the 2010–11 Pakistani floods.', Quarterly journal of political science., 12 (1). pp. 99-141.


How natural disasters affect politics in developing countries is an important question, given the fragility of fledgling democratic institutions in some of these countries as well as likely increased exposure to natural disasters over time due to climate change. Research in sociology and psychology suggests traumatic events can inspire pro-social behavior and therefore might increase political engagement. Research in political science argues that economic resources are critical for political engagement and thus the economic dislocation from disasters may dampen participation. We argue that when the government and civil society response effectively blunts a disaster's economic impacts, then political engagement may increase as citizens learn about government capacity. Using diverse data from the massive 2010–11 Pakistan floods, we find that Pakistanis in highly flood-affected areas turned out to vote at substantially higher rates three years later than those less exposed. We also provide speculative evidence on the mechanism. The increase in turnout was higher in areas with lower ex ante flood risk, which is consistent with a learning process. These results suggest that natural disasters may not necessarily undermine civil society in emerging developing democracies.

Item Type:Article
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
Download PDF
Publisher Web site:
Date accepted:19 April 2017
Date deposited:17 May 2017
Date of first online publication:16 May 2017
Date first made open access:16 November 2017

Save or Share this output

Look up in GoogleScholar