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Conditionals and conditional probability

Evans, J.S.B.T.; Handley, S.J.; Over, D.E.

Authors

J.S.B.T. Evans

S.J. Handley



Abstract

The authors report 3 experiments in which participants were invited to judge the probability of statements of the form if p then q given frequency information about the cases pq, p-q, -pq, and -p-q (where - not). Three hypotheses were compared: (a) that people equate the probability with that of the material conditional, 1 - P(p-q); (b) that people assign the conditional probability, P(q/p); and (c) that people assign the conjunctive probability P(pq). The experimental evidence allowed rejection of the 1st hypothesis but provided some support for the 2nd and 3rd hypotheses. Individual difference analyses showed that half of the participants used conditional probability and that most of the remaining participants used conjunctive probability as the basis of their judgments.

Citation

Evans, J., Handley, S., & Over, D. (2003). Conditionals and conditional probability. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 29(2), 321-335. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.29.2.321

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Mar 1, 2003
Deposit Date Jan 22, 2009
Journal Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition
Print ISSN 0278-7393
Publisher American Psychological Association
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 29
Issue 2
Pages 321-335
DOI https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.29.2.321
Keywords Mental models, Deduction, Inference, Premises.

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