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Robust Bayesian reliability for complex systems under prior-data conflict.

Walter, G. and Coolen, F.P.A. (2018) 'Robust Bayesian reliability for complex systems under prior-data conflict.', ASCE-ASME journal of risk and uncertainty in engineering systems, Part A: civil engineering., 4 (3). 04018025.

Abstract

This paper considers the quantification of system reliability in scenarios in which data, that is, failures or the absence of failures, occurring from the system’s use over time, are considered surprising from the perspective of prior information. A generalized, or imprecise, Bayesian approach is presented for general system structures in which the component lifetimes have Weibull distributions with a known shape parameter. For the scale parameter, a specific set of prior distributions is assumed that enables the prior-data conflict to be reflected through the increased imprecision in the posterior reliability bounds.

Item Type:Article
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
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Status:Peer-reviewed
Publisher Web site:https://doi.org/10.1061/ajrua6.0000974
Publisher statement:This material may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the American Society of Civil Engineers. This material may be found at https://doi.org/10.1061/ajrua6.0000974
Date accepted:28 February 2018
Date deposited:23 February 2018
Date of first online publication:14 June 2018
Date first made open access:No date available

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