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Nonparametric predictive inference for European option pricing based on the Binomial Tree Model.

He, T. and Coolen, F.P.A. and Coolen-Maturi, T. (2019) 'Nonparametric predictive inference for European option pricing based on the Binomial Tree Model.', Journal of the Operational Research Society., 70 (10). pp. 1692-1708.


In finance, option pricing is one of the main topics. A basic model for option pricing is the Binomial Tree Model, proposed by Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein in 1979 (CRR). This model assumes that the underlying asset price follows a binomial distribution with a constant upward probability, the so-called risk-neutral probability. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on the binomial tree. Rather than using the risk-neutral probability, we apply Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI) to infer imprecise probabilities of movements, reflecting more uncertainty while learning from data. To study its performance, we price the same European options utilizing both the NPI method and the CRR model and compare the results in two different scenarios, firstly where the CRR assumptions are right, and secondly where the CRR model assumptions deviate from the real market. It turns out that our NPI method, as expected, cannot perform better than the CRR in the first scenario, but can do better in the second scenario.

Item Type:Article
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Publisher statement:This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of the Operational Research Society on 22 February 2019 available online:
Date accepted:26 June 2018
Date deposited:27 June 2018
Date of first online publication:22 February 2019
Date first made open access:22 February 2020

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