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Earliest Predictor of Dropout in MOOCs: A Longitudinal Study of FutureLearn Courses

Cristea, A.; Alamri, Ahmed; Kayama, Mizue; Stewart, Craig; Alsheri, Mohammed; Shi, Lei

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Authors

Mizue Kayama

Mohammed Alsheri

Lei Shi



Contributors

B. Andersson
Editor

B. Johansson
Editor

S. Carlsson
Editor

C. Barry
Editor

M. Lang
Editor

H. Linger
Editor

C. Schneider
Editor

Abstract

Whilst a high dropout rate is a well-known problem in MOOCs, few studies take a data-driven approach to understand the reasons of such a phenomenon, and to thus be in the position to recommend and design possible adaptive solutions to alleviate it. In this study, we are particularly interested in finding a novel early detection mechanism of potential dropout, and thus be able to intervene at an as early time as possible. Additionally, unlike previous studies, we explore a light-weight approach, based on as little data as possible – since different MOOCs store different data on their users – and thus strive to create a truly generalisable method. Therefore, we focus here specifically on the generally available registration date and its relation to the course start date, via a comprehensive, larger than average, longitudinal study of several runs of all MOOC courses at the University of Warwick between 2014-1017, on the less explored European FutureLearn platform. We identify specific periods where different interventions are necessary, and propose, based on statistically significant results, specific pseudo-rules for adaptive feedback.

Citation

Cristea, A., Alamri, A., Kayama, M., Stewart, C., Alsheri, M., & Shi, L. (2018). Earliest Predictor of Dropout in MOOCs: A Longitudinal Study of FutureLearn Courses. In B. Andersson, B. Johansson, S. Carlsson, C. Barry, M. Lang, H. Linger, & C. Schneider (Eds.), Information Systems Development: Designing Digitalization (ISD2018 Proceedings). Lund, Sweden: Lund University

Conference Name 27th International Conference on Information Systems Development (ISD2018).
Conference Location Lund, Sweden
Acceptance Date Jun 11, 2018
Online Publication Date Oct 31, 2018
Publication Date Oct 31, 2018
Deposit Date Jul 18, 2018
Publicly Available Date Aug 2, 2018
Publisher Association for Information Systems
Book Title Information Systems Development: Designing Digitalization (ISD2018 Proceedings). Lund, Sweden: Lund University.
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1144954
Publisher URL https://aisel.aisnet.org/isd2014/proceedings2018/Education/5/

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