Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices

Frigg, Roman; Bradley, Seamus; Du, Hailiang; Smith, Leonard A.

doi:10.1086/674416

Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices

Frigg, Roman; Bradley, Seamus; Du, Hailiang; Smith, Leonard A.

Authors

Roman Frigg

Seamus Bradley

Dr Hailiang Du hailiang.du@durham.ac.uk
Associate Professor

Leonard A. Smith

Abstract

The sensitive dependence on initial conditions (SDIC) associated with nonlinear models imposes limitations on the models’ predictive power. We draw attention to an additional limitation than has been underappreciated, namely, structural model error (SME). A model has SME if the model dynamics differ from the dynamics in the target system. If a nonlinear model has only the slightest SME, then its ability to generate decision-relevant predictions is compromised. Given a perfect model, we can take the effects of SDIC into account by substituting probabilistic predictions for point predictions. This route is foreclosed in the case of SME, which puts us in a worse epistemic situation than SDIC.

Citation

Frigg, R., Bradley, S., Du, H., & Smith, L. A. (2014). Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices. Philosophy of Science, 81(1), 31-59. https://doi.org/10.1086/674416

Journal Article Type	Article
Online Publication Date	Jan 1, 2014
Publication Date	Jan 1, 2014
Deposit Date	Jul 31, 2018
Publicly Available Date	Aug 21, 2018
Journal	Philosophy of Science
Print ISSN	0031-8248
Electronic ISSN	1539-767X
Publisher	Philosophy of Science Association
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	81
Issue	1
Pages	31-59
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1086/674416
Related Public URLs	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/54817/