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Endogenous growth and wave-like business fluctuations.

Bambi, M. and Gozzi, F. and Licandro, O. (2014) 'Endogenous growth and wave-like business fluctuations.', Journal of economic theory., 154 . pp. 68-111.


This paper argues that observed long lags in innovation implementation rationalize Schumpeter's statement that “wave-like fluctuations in business ... are the form economic development takes in the era of capitalism.” Adding implementation delays to an otherwise standard endogenous growth model with expanding product variety, the equilibrium path admits a Hopf bifurcation where consumption, R&D and output permanently fluctuate. This mechanism is quantitatively consistent with the observed medium-term movements of US aggregate output. In this framework, an optimal allocation may be restored at equilibrium by the mean of a procyclical subsidy, needed to generate additional consumption smoothing. Finally, a procyclical R&D subsidy rate designed to half consumption fluctuations will increase the growth rate from 2.4% to 3.4% with a 9.6% (compensation equivalent) increase in welfare.

Item Type:Article
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
Available under License - Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
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Publisher statement:© 2014 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
Date accepted:02 July 2014
Date deposited:24 September 2018
Date of first online publication:29 August 2014
Date first made open access:No date available

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