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Competing risks survival analysis of ruptured gas pipelines : a nonparametric predictive approach.

Tee, Kong Fah and Pesinis, Konstantinos and Coolen-Maturi, Tahani (2019) 'Competing risks survival analysis of ruptured gas pipelines : a nonparametric predictive approach.', International journal of pressure vessels and piping., 175 . p. 103919.


Risk analysis based on historical failure data can form an integral part of the integrity management of oil and gas pipelines. The scarcity and lack of consistency in the information provided by major incident databases leads to non-specific results of the risk status of pipes under consideration. In order to evaluate pipeline failure rates, the rate of occurrence of failures is commonly adopted. This study aims to derive inductive inferences from the 179 reported ruptures of a set of onshore gas transmission pipelines, reported in the PHMSA database for the period from 2002 to 2014. Failure causes are grouped in an integrated manner and the impact of each group in the probability of rupture is examined. Towards this, nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) is employed for competing risks survival analysis. This method provides interval probabilities, also known as imprecise reliability, in that probabilities and survival functions are quantified via upper and lower bounds. The focus is on a future pipe component (segment) that ruptures due to a specific failure cause among a range of competing risks. The results can be used to examine and implement optimal maintenance strategies based on relative risk prioritization.

Item Type:Article
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
Available under License - Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
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Publisher statement:© 2019 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
Date accepted:05 June 2019
Date deposited:13 June 2019
Date of first online publication:12 June 2019
Date first made open access:12 June 2020

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