Andreou, P. and Kagkadis, A . and Philip, D. and Taamouti, A. (2019) 'The information content of forward moments.', Journal of banking and finance., 106 . pp. 527-541.
We estimate the term structures of risk-neutral forward variance and skewness, and examine their predictive power for equity market excess returns and variance. We use Partial Least Squares to extract a single predictive factor from each term structure that is motivated by the theoretical implications of affine no-arbitrage models. The empirical analysis shows that an increased forward variance factor, FVF (forward skewness factor, FSF) corresponds to a more negatively sloped forward variance (more U-shaped forward skewness) term structure, and significantly forecasts higher future market excess returns and variance. More importantly, FSF exhibits predictive power for market returns that is stronger than, and incremental to, that provided by FVF. However, it does not outperform FVF in terms of excess variance predictability.
|Full text:||(AM) Accepted Manuscript|
Available under License - Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
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|Publisher Web site:||https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-banking-and-finance/issues|
|Publisher statement:||© 2019 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/|
|Date accepted:||29 July 2019|
|Date deposited:||30 July 2019|
|Date of first online publication:||01 August 2019|
|Date first made open access:||01 February 2021|
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