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Could rainfall have swung the result of the Brexit referendum?

Leslie, Patrick A.; Arı, Barış

Could rainfall have swung the result of the Brexit referendum? Thumbnail


Authors

Patrick A. Leslie

Barış Arı



Abstract

Previous studies have shown that weather conditions may affect voter turnout, sometimes in ways that could plausibly swing the result of a close election. On the day of Britain's EU Referendum, the presence of torrential rain in the South-East of England and Northern Ireland raised concern in the media that voter turnout could be affected in a manner that favoured the Vote Leave campaign. To test this assertion, this paper takes data at the polling district level and overlays interpolated rainfall data using geographic information system (GIS) technology. Despite widespread expectations to the contrary, our analysis shows that the rain had the greatest effect on the leave vote, reducing the Brexiteer tally by as many as 4618 votes in one district. We find that if the referendum had taken place on a sunny day, there would have been a small increase in the margin of victory for Vote Leave.

Citation

Leslie, P. A., & Arı, B. (2018). Could rainfall have swung the result of the Brexit referendum?. Political Geography, 65, 134-142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2018.05.009

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 29, 2018
Online Publication Date Jul 17, 2018
Publication Date Jul 31, 2018
Deposit Date Oct 15, 2018
Publicly Available Date Jul 17, 2020
Journal Political Geography
Print ISSN 0962-6298
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 65
Pages 134-142
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2018.05.009
Keywords Rainfall, Brexit, Elections, GIS, Turnout, Postal voting, Forecasting

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