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Forecasting and planning during a pandemic : COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions.

Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos and Punia, Sushil and Schäfers, Andreas and Tsinopoulos, Christos and Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis (2020) 'Forecasting and planning during a pandemic : COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions.', European journal of operational research., 290 (1). pp. 99-115.


Policymakers during 1COVID-19 operate in uncharted 2territory and must make tough decisions. Operational Research - the ubiquitous ‘science of better’ - plays a vital role in supporting this decision-making process. To that end, using data from the USA, India, UK, Germany, and Singapore up to mid-April 2020, we provide predictive analytics tools for forecasting and planning during a pandemic. We forecast COVID-19 growth rates with statistical, epidemiological, machine- and deep-learning models, and a new hybrid forecasting method based on nearest neighbors and clustering. We further model and forecast the excess demand for products and services during the pandemic using auxiliary data (google trends) and simulating governmental decisions (lockdown). Our empirical results can immediately help policymakers and planners make better decisions during the ongoing and future pandemics.

Item Type:Article
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
Available under License - Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
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Publisher statement:© 2020 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
Date accepted:03 August 2020
Date deposited:04 August 2020
Date of first online publication:08 August 2020
Date first made open access:08 August 2022

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