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Nonparametric predictive inference for test reproducibility by sampling future data orderings.

Coolen, F.P.A. and Marques, F.J. (2020) 'Nonparametric predictive inference for test reproducibility by sampling future data orderings.', Journal of statistical theory and practice., 14 (4). p. 62.


This paper considers nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for reproducibility of likelihood ratio tests with the test criterion in terms of the sample mean. Given a sample of size n used for the actual test, the NPI approach provides lower and upper probabilities for the event that a repeat of the test, also with n observations, will lead to the same overall test conclusion, that is rejecting a null-hypothesis or not. This is achieved by considering all orderings of n future observations among the n data observations, which based on an exchangeability assumption are equally likely. However, exact lower and upper probabilities can only be derived for relatively small values of n due to computational limitations. Therefore, the main aim of this paper is to explore sampling of the orderings of the future data among the observed data in order to approximate the lower and upper reproducibility probabilities. The approach is applied for the Exponential and Normal distributions, and the performance of the ordering sampling for approximation of the NPI lower and upper reproducibility probabilities is investigated. An application with real data of the methodology developed is provided.

Item Type:Article
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Publisher statement:This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of a journal article published in Journal of statistical theory and practice. The final authenticated version is available online at:
Date accepted:30 July 2020
Date deposited:10 September 2020
Date of first online publication:08 September 2020
Date first made open access:08 September 2021

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