Farm Households’ Perception of Weather Change and Flood Adaptations in Northern Pakistan

Abstract

This research investigates farm households' adaptations to climate change-driven monsoon floods in the rural district of Nowshera, Pakistan. Some households in these flood-affected communities have undertaken autonomous adaptations to flooding. We surveyed five hundred farm households from both flood-affected and unaffected villages to investigate the factors driving the uptake of the following autonomous flood adaptations: plinth elevation, grain storage, participation in communal flood preparations and the creation of edge-of-field tree lined shelterbelts. We used both binary and multivariate probit regressions to investigate the correlation across adaptation options. Empirical results suggest that access to agricultural extension services, off-farm work opportunities, past duration of standing floodwaters, farm to river distance, receiving post-flooding support and tribal diversity are the main drivers of flood adaptations. Moreover, we report the complementary uptake of adaptations in pairs. Given the prediction of climate change-driven flooding in the Hindu Kush, we recommend cost-effective policies that increase the resilience of vulnerable agricultural-dependent rural communities. In addition, we report that respondents perceived a change in weather towards hotter and dryer weather over the last ten years.