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Farm households’ perception of weather change and flood adaptations in Northern Pakistan.

Aftab, Ashar and Ahmed, Ajaz and Scarpa, Riccardo (2021) 'Farm households’ perception of weather change and flood adaptations in Northern Pakistan.', Ecological economics., 182 . p. 106882.


This research investigates farm households' adaptations to climate change-driven monsoon floods in the rural district of Nowshera, Pakistan. Some households in these flood-affected communities have undertaken autonomous adaptations to flooding. We surveyed five hundred farm households from both flood-affected and unaffected villages to investigate the factors driving the uptake of the following autonomous flood adaptations: plinth elevation, grain storage, participation in communal flood preparations and the creation of edge-of-field tree lined shelterbelts. We used both binary and multivariate probit regressions to investigate the correlation across adaptation options. Empirical results suggest that access to agricultural extension services, off-farm work opportunities, past duration of standing floodwaters, farm to river distance, receiving post-flooding support and tribal diversity are the main drivers of flood adaptations. Moreover, we report the complementary uptake of adaptations in pairs. Given the prediction of climate change-driven flooding in the Hindu Kush, we recommend cost-effective policies that increase the resilience of vulnerable agricultural-dependent rural communities. In addition, we report that respondents perceived a change in weather towards hotter and dryer weather over the last ten years.

Item Type:Article
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
Available under License - Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
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Publisher statement:© 2020 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
Date accepted:06 October 2020
Date deposited:15 October 2020
Date of first online publication:15 January 2021
Date first made open access:15 January 2022

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