Matthew Deakin
Impacts of heat decarbonization on system adequacy considering increased meteorological sensitivity
Deakin, Matthew; Bloomfield, Hannah; Greenwood, David; Sheehy, Sarah; Walker, Sara; Taylor, Phil C.
Authors
Hannah Bloomfield
David Greenwood
Sarah Sheehy sarah.sheehy2@durham.ac.uk
PGR Student Doctor of Philosophy
Sara Walker
Phil C. Taylor
Abstract
This paper explores the impacts of decarbonization of heat on demand and subsequently on the generation capacity required to secure against system adequacy standards. Gas demand is explored as a proxy variable for modelling the electrification of heating demand in existing housing stock, with a focus on impacts on timescales of capacity markets (up to four years ahead). The work considers the systemic changes that electrification of heating could introduce, including biases that could be introduced if legacy modelling approaches continue to prevail. Covariates from gas and electrical regression models are combined to form a novel, time-collapsed system model, with demand-weather sensitivities determined using lasso-regularized linear regression. It is shown, using a Great Britain-based case study with one million domestic heat pump installations per year, that the sensitivity of electrical system demand to temperature (and subsequently sensitivities to cold/warm winter seasons) could increase by 50% following four years of heat demand electrification. A central estimate of 1.75 kW additional peak demand per heat pump is estimated, with variability across three published heat demand profiles leading to a range of more than 14 GW in the most extreme cases. It is shown that the legacy approach of scaling historic demand, as compared to the explicit modelling of heat, could lead to over-procurement of 0.79 GW due to bias in estimates of additional capacity to secure. Failure to address this issue could lead to £100m overspend on capacity over ten years.
Citation
Deakin, M., Bloomfield, H., Greenwood, D., Sheehy, S., Walker, S., & Taylor, P. C. (2021). Impacts of heat decarbonization on system adequacy considering increased meteorological sensitivity. Applied Energy, 298, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117261
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Jun 9, 2021 |
Online Publication Date | Jun 19, 2021 |
Publication Date | 2021 |
Deposit Date | Nov 22, 2021 |
Publicly Available Date | Nov 22, 2021 |
Journal | Applied Energy |
Print ISSN | 0306-2619 |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 298 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117261 |
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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Copyright Statement
This is an open access article under the CC BY license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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