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Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species

Pouteau, Robin; Biurrun, Idoia; Brunel, Caroline; Chytrý, Milan; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Fristoe, Trevor; Haveman, Rense; Hobohm, Carsten; Jansen, Florian; Kreft, Holger; Lenoir, Jonathan; Lenzner, Bernd; Meyer, Carsten; Moeslund, Jesper Erenskjold; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Svenning, Jens‐Christian; Thuiller, Wilfried; Weigelt, Patrick; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Yang, Qiang; van Kleunen, Mark

Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species Thumbnail


Authors

Robin Pouteau

Idoia Biurrun

Caroline Brunel

Milan Chytrý

Franz Essl

Trevor Fristoe

Rense Haveman

Carsten Hobohm

Florian Jansen

Holger Kreft

Jonathan Lenoir

Bernd Lenzner

Carsten Meyer

Jesper Erenskjold Moeslund

Jan Pergl

Petr Pyšek

Jens‐Christian Svenning

Wilfried Thuiller

Patrick Weigelt

Thomas Wohlgemuth

Qiang Yang

Mark van Kleunen



Abstract

Aims The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains poorly misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. Location Global. Methods We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analysed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species’ potential alien ranges. Results We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. Main conclusions While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less.

Citation

Pouteau, R., Biurrun, I., Brunel, C., Chytrý, M., Dawson, W., Essl, F., …van Kleunen, M. (2021). Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species. Diversity and Distributions, 27(11), 2063-2076. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13378

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jun 23, 2021
Online Publication Date Oct 22, 2021
Publication Date 2021-11
Deposit Date Dec 2, 2021
Publicly Available Date Dec 2, 2021
Journal Diversity and Distributions
Print ISSN 1366-9516
Electronic ISSN 1472-4642
Publisher Wiley Open Access
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 27
Issue 11
Pages 2063-2076
DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13378

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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Copyright Statement
Advance online version This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.




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