Pricing exotic options in the incomplete market: an imprecise probability method

He, T.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Maturi, T.

doi:10.1002/asmb.2668

Pricing exotic options in the incomplete market: an imprecise probability method

He, T.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Maturi, T.

Authors

T. He

Professor Frank Coolen frank.coolen@durham.ac.uk
Professor

Dr Tahani Coolen-Maturi tahani.maturi@durham.ac.uk
Associate Professor

Abstract

This paper considers a novel exotic option pricing method for incomplete markets. Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI) is applied to the option pricing procedure based on the binomial tree model allowing the method to evaluate exotic options with limited information and few assumptions. As the implementation of the NPI method is greatly simplified by the monotonicity of the option payoff in the tree, we categorize exotic options by their payoff monotonicity and study a typical type of exotic option in each category, the barrier option and the look-back option. By comparison with the classic binomial tree model, we investigate the performance of our method either with different moneyness or varying maturity. All outcomes show that our model offers a feasible approach to price the exotic options with limited information, which makes it can be utilized for both complete and incomplete markets.

Citation

He, T., Coolen, F., & Coolen-Maturi, T. (2022). Pricing exotic options in the incomplete market: an imprecise probability method. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 38(3), 422-440. https://doi.org/10.1002/asmb.2668

Journal Article Type	Article
Acceptance Date	Jan 11, 2022
Online Publication Date	Jan 31, 2022
Publication Date	Jun 17, 2022
Deposit Date	Jan 11, 2022
Publicly Available Date	Jan 31, 2023
Journal	Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry
Print ISSN	1524-1904
Electronic ISSN	1526-4025
Publisher	Wiley
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	38
Issue	3
Pages	422-440
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1002/asmb.2668

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Copyright Statement
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: He, T., Coolen, F.P.A. & Coolen-Maturi, T. (2022). Pricing exotic options in the incomplete market: an imprecise probability method. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry 38(3): 422-440, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/asmb.2668. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.