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Raincheck: A new diachronic series of rainfall maps for Southwest Asia over the Holocene

Hewett, Zarina; de Gruchy, Michelle; Hill, Daniel; Lawrence, Dan

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Authors

Zarina Hewett

Michelle de Gruchy

Daniel Hill



Abstract

Fluctuations in climate have been associated with significant societal changes, both in the modern day and in the past. In dryland environments such as much of Southwest Asia, rainfall is often used as a proxy for soil moisture available for crop production, and in pre-industrial societies this is assumed to directly relate to food production capacity and security. However, rainfall values are commonly quoted in archaeological literature without further context. Variability between values arising from different methods and timescales are rarely considered. This is important as small changes in rainfall can have profound effects on the interpretation of sites and landscapes. Here, we present a novel set of snapshot precipitation maps for Southwest Asia between the years 10240BP and 300BP, based on previously published natural archive data by BarMatthews & Ayalon (2004) from Soreq Cave, and a newly derived modern rainfall map. The modern map was created using station data from the years 1960-90 and a geostatistical interpolation technique applied across 14 separate zones. We outline the steps involved in the creation of the maps and provide access to, and clear explanations of, the data and methods used. Using the hindcasted maps we examine two case studies to highlight why a nuanced approach to rainfall is required in the study of ancient societies. We calculate changes to the spatial extent of the so-called 'Zone of Uncertainty' through time, as well as land suitable for rainfed agriculture throughout time using a simple model. We demonstrate that relatively small fluctuations in rainfall can have a significant impact on the distribution of moisture availability for the region. We argue that archaeologists need to be aware of the sources and limitations of the rainfall data used in their interpretations, and offer our map series as a baseline dataset.

Citation

Hewett, Z., de Gruchy, M., Hill, D., & Lawrence, D. (2022). Raincheck: A new diachronic series of rainfall maps for Southwest Asia over the Holocene. Levant, 54(1), 5-28. https://doi.org/10.1080/00758914.2022.2052660

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Oct 28, 2021
Online Publication Date May 9, 2022
Publication Date 2022
Deposit Date Mar 15, 2022
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal Levant
Print ISSN 0075-8914
Electronic ISSN 1756-3801
Publisher Taylor and Francis Group
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 54
Issue 1
Pages 5-28
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/00758914.2022.2052660

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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.





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