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Climate change, fire return intervals and the growing risk of permanent forest loss in boreal Eurasia

Burrell, Arden L.; Sun, Qiaoqi; Baxter, Robert; Kukavskaya, Elena A.; Zhila, Sergey; Shestakova, Tatiana; Rogers, Brendan M.; Kaduk, Jörg; Barrett, Kirsten

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Authors

Arden L. Burrell

Qiaoqi Sun

Elena A. Kukavskaya

Sergey Zhila

Tatiana Shestakova

Brendan M. Rogers

Jörg Kaduk

Kirsten Barrett



Abstract

Climate change has driven an increase in the frequency and severity of fires in Eurasian boreal forests. A growing number of field studies have linked the change in fire regime to post-fire recruitment failure and permanent forest loss. In this study we used four burned area and two forest loss datasets to calculate the landscape-scale fire return interval (FRI) and associated risk of permanent forest loss. We then used machine learning to predict how the FRI will change under a high emissions scenario (SSP3–7.0) by the end of the century. We found that there are currently 133,000 km2 forest at high, or extreme, risk of fire-induced forest loss, with a further 3 M km2 at risk by the end of the century. This has the potential to degrade or destroy some of the largest remaining intact forests in the world, negatively impact the health and economic wellbeing of people living in the region, as well as accelerate global climate change.

Citation

Burrell, A. L., Sun, Q., Baxter, R., Kukavskaya, E. A., Zhila, S., Shestakova, T., …Barrett, K. (2022). Climate change, fire return intervals and the growing risk of permanent forest loss in boreal Eurasia. Science of the Total Environment, 831, Article 154885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154885

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Mar 24, 2022
Online Publication Date Apr 5, 2022
Publication Date 2022-07
Deposit Date Apr 5, 2022
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal Science of the Total Environment
Print ISSN 0048-9697
Electronic ISSN 1879-1026
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 831
Article Number 154885
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154885

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