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The performance of models relating species' geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level

Huntley, B.; Green, R.E.; Collingham, Y.C.; Hill, J.K.; Willis, S.G.; Bartlein, P.J.; Cramer, W.; Hagemeijer, W.J.M.; Thomas, C.J.

Authors

B. Huntley

R.E. Green

Y.C. Collingham

J.K. Hill

P.J. Bartlein

W. Cramer

W.J.M. Hagemeijer

C.J. Thomas



Abstract

Species' climate 'envelope' models are widely used to evaluate potential climate change impacts upon species and biodiversity. Previous studies have used a variety of methods to fit models making it difficult to assess relative model performance for different taxonomic groups, life forms or trophic levels. Here we use the same climatic data and modelling approach for 306 European species representing three major taxa (higher plants, insects and birds), and including species of different life form and from four trophic levels. Goodness-of-fit measures showed that useful models were fitted for >96% of species, and that model performance was related neither to major taxonomic group nor to trophic level. These results confirm that such climate envelope models provide the best approach currently available for evaluating reliably the potential impacts of future climate change upon biodiversity.

Citation

Huntley, B., Green, R., Collingham, Y., Hill, J., Willis, S., Bartlein, P., …Thomas, C. (2004). The performance of models relating species' geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level. Ecology Letters, 7(5), 417-426. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00598.x

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date May 1, 2004
Deposit Date May 17, 2007
Journal Ecology Letters
Print ISSN 1461-023X
Electronic ISSN 1461-0248
Publisher Wiley
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 7
Issue 5
Pages 417-426
DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00598.x