Professor Ian Vernon i.r.vernon@durham.ac.uk
Professor
Bayesian Emulation and History Matching of JUNE
Vernon, I.; Owen, J.; Aylett-Bullock, J.; Cuestra-Lazaro, C.; Frawley, J.; Quera-Bofarull, A.; Sedgewick, A.; Shi, D.; Truong, H.; Turner, M.; Walker, J.; Caulfield, T.; Fong, K.; Krauss, F.
Authors
Jonathan Owen jonathan.owen@durham.ac.uk
PGR Student Doctor of Philosophy
J. Aylett-Bullock
C. Cuestra-Lazaro
Jonathan Frawley jonathan.frawley@durham.ac.uk
PGR Student Doctor of Philosophy
A. Quera-Bofarull
A. Sedgewick
Dr Difu Shi difu.shi@durham.ac.uk
Science Translation Fellow
Henry Truong henry.truong@durham.ac.uk
PGR Student Doctor of Philosophy
M. Turner
Joseph Walker j.j.walker@durham.ac.uk
PGR Student Doctor of Philosophy
T. Caulfield
K. Fong
Professor Frank Krauss frank.krauss@durham.ac.uk
Royal Society Wolfson Fellow
Abstract
We analyse JUNE: a detailed model of Covid-19 transmission with high spatial and demographic resolution, developed as part of the RAMP initiative. JUNE requires substantial computational resources to evaluate, making model calibration and general uncertainty analysis extremely challenging. We describe and employ the Uncertainty Quantification approaches of Bayes linear emulation and history matching, to mimic JUNE and to perform a global parameter search, hence identifying regions of parameter space that produce acceptable matches to observed data, and demonstrating the capability of such methods.
Citation
Vernon, I., Owen, J., Aylett-Bullock, J., Cuestra-Lazaro, C., Frawley, J., Quera-Bofarull, A., …Krauss, F. (2022). Bayesian Emulation and History Matching of JUNE. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 380(2233), Article 20220039. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0039
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Jun 7, 2022 |
Online Publication Date | Aug 15, 2022 |
Publication Date | Oct 3, 2022 |
Deposit Date | Jun 8, 2022 |
Publicly Available Date | Mar 29, 2024 |
Journal | Philosophical Transactions A |
Print ISSN | 1364-503X |
Electronic ISSN | 1471-2962 |
Publisher | The Royal Society |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 380 |
Issue | 2233 |
Article Number | 20220039 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0039 |
Public URL | https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1202890 |
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Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Published Journal Article
(2.3 Mb)
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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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