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Episodes of liberalization in autocracies: a new approach to quantitatively studying democratization

Wilson, Matthew C.; Medzihorsky, Juraj; Maerz, Seraphine F.; Lindenfors, Patrik; Edgell, Amanda B.; Boese, Vanessa A.; Lindberg, Staffan I.

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Authors

Matthew C. Wilson

Seraphine F. Maerz

Patrik Lindenfors

Amanda B. Edgell

Vanessa A. Boese

Staffan I. Lindberg



Abstract

This paper introduces a new approach to the quantitative study of democratization. Building on the comparative case-study and large-N literature, it outlines an episode approach that identifies the discrete beginning of a period of political liberalization, traces its progression, and classifies episodes as successful versus different types of failing outcomes, thus avoiding potentially fallacious assumptions of unit homogeneity. We provide a description and analysis of all 383 liberalization episodes from 1900 to 2019, offering new insights on democratic “waves”. We also demonstrate the value of this approach by showing that while several established covariates are valuable for predicting the ultimate outcomes, none explain the onset of a period of liberalization.

Citation

Wilson, M. C., Medzihorsky, J., Maerz, S. F., Lindenfors, P., Edgell, A. B., Boese, V. A., & Lindberg, S. I. (2023). Episodes of liberalization in autocracies: a new approach to quantitatively studying democratization. Political Science Research and Methods, 11(3), 501-520. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.11

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jul 20, 2021
Online Publication Date Jun 15, 2022
Publication Date 2023-07
Deposit Date Jul 18, 2022
Publicly Available Date Jul 18, 2022
Journal Political Science Research and Methods
Print ISSN 2049-8470
Electronic ISSN 2049-8489
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 11
Issue 3
Pages 501-520
DOI https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.11
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1197616

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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/

Copyright Statement
Advance online version This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the same Creative Commons licence is included and the original work is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use.




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