Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

Future sea level rise dominates changes in worst case extreme sea levels along the global coastline by 2100

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Williams, Joanne; Vousdoukas, Michalis I; Jackson, Luke P

Future sea level rise dominates changes in worst case extreme sea levels along the global coastline by 2100 Thumbnail


Authors

Svetlana Jevrejeva

Joanne Williams

Michalis I Vousdoukas



Abstract

We provide the magnitude of a worst case scenario for extreme sea levels (ESLs) along the global coastline by 2100. This worst case scenario for ESLs is calculated as a combination of sea surface height associated with storm surge and wave (100 year return period, the 95th percentile), high tide (the 95th percentile) and a low probability sea level rise scenario (the 95th percentile). Under these conditions, end-of-21st century ESLs have a 5% chance of exceeding 4.2 m (global coastal average), compared to 2.6 m during the baseline period (1980–2014). By 2100 almost 45% of the global coastline would experience ESLs above the global mean of 4.2 m, with up to 9–10 m for the East China Sea, Japan and North European coastal areas. Up to 86% of coastal locations would face ESLs above 3 m (100 year return period) by 2100, compared to 33% currently. Up to 90% of increases in magnitude of ESLs are driven by future sea level rise, compare to 10% associated with changes in storm surges and waves. By 2030–2040 the present-day 100 year return period for ESLs would be experienced at least once a year in tropical areas. This 100-fold increase in frequency will take place on all global coastlines by 2100.

Citation

Jevrejeva, S., Williams, J., Vousdoukas, M. I., & Jackson, L. P. (2023). Future sea level rise dominates changes in worst case extreme sea levels along the global coastline by 2100. Environmental Research Letters, 18(2), Article 024037. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb504

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jan 20, 2023
Online Publication Date Feb 6, 2023
Publication Date 2023
Deposit Date May 9, 2023
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal Environmental Research Letters
Publisher IOP Publishing
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 18
Issue 2
Article Number 024037
DOI https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb504

Files

Published Journal Article (1.6 Mb)
PDF

Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Copyright Statement
Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.





You might also like



Downloadable Citations