The Chinese and Russian Energy Sectors: Comparative Change and Potential Interaction

Abstract

China and Russia had comparable shares of world supply of and demand for energy in 1997 but this was the result of opposing trends. Despite dramatic decline in energy intensity, demand growth in China has exceeded supply growth in the 1990s by 1% per annum, leading to the first deficit in primary energy supply in 1997. This deficit is projected to reach 9% of total demand by 2010, forcing China to become a significant competitor for international energy resources. Energy demand in Russia fell 6% per annum 1991-96, only two-thirds of GDP decline but more than supply, indicating an increasing share of exports in production, with the change from inter-regional to international supply within the Former Soviet Union a further significant factor. Russia has no difficulty finding a market for its oil exports but these are projected to be lower than present levels by 2010. In gas, conversely, where it has a unique endowment, it is losing share in its established European markets, encouraging a turn to the world's largest energy deficit region-the Asia Pacific Region. This article examines these comparative changes and the potential of energy to form the core of the emerging economic relationship between Russia and China.