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Bayesian approach to sapwood estimates and felling dates in dendrochronology.

Millard, A. (2002) 'Bayesian approach to sapwood estimates and felling dates in dendrochronology.', Archaeometry., 44 (1). pp. 137-143.


An improved method of generating sapwood estimates for oak is developed. This suggests a revision of the 95% confidence range from 10–40 to 9–36 rings for trees from southern England. Current methods for estimating felling dates on timbers with incomplete sapwood do not generate true 95% confidence limits, and a Bayesian method for deriving such limits is presented. For timbers with no sapwood, the addition of 12 years to the date of the final ring is shown to give a 95% confidence limit on the terminus post quem for felling. The further application of these methods is illustrated by calculation of the common felling date for timbers from the Great Kitchen at Windsor Castle.

Item Type:Article
Keywords:Dendrochronology, Bayesian statistics, Sapwood estimates, Felling dates.
Full text:(AM) Accepted Manuscript
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Publisher statement:The definitive version is available at
Date accepted:No date available
Date deposited:14 December 2009
Date of first online publication:February 2002
Date first made open access:No date available

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